Mark C. Partridge

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent trip to the Iranian capital, Tehran, has been garnering many headlines of late, but few seem to be putting the event into the proper context. I believe that this event offers important insights into how Russia operates on the world stage.

Firstly, Joshua Keating over at FP Passport came closest to the mark, explaining that rather than anti-Americanism and assassination threats, the recent conference was about the division of the Caspian Sea’s wealth of energy resources.

As I have noted earlier, the Caspian is an incredibly important region for the West and its energy companies as there are few areas where they can operate without the influence of national energy companies, like Russia’s Gazprom. However, up to this point, independent energy companies have largely squandered (subscription needed) their opportunities in the region. This is a real problem given the increasing assertiveness of oil-producing nations and their national energy companies, which are restricting western companies movements. Consequently, there are fewer and fewer places for the likes of BP, Exxon and Shell to access large deposits. In the words of J. Robinson West, chairman of PFC Energy: “There are no easy barrels left … The only barrels are going to be the tough barrels.” Consequently, the U.S., which is increasingly worried about Russia’s energy influence, will want to protect Georgia and Azerbaijan against the pall of the Bear (which might explain CIA Director Michael Hayden’s recent jaunt to the region) so that Western companies can continue to access the Caspian’s prizes.

To me, the whole episode shines a light on Russia’s actions on the world stage where Putin has continually shown himself to be a shrewd and skilled operator. As always, he looks to be making pragmatic decisions rather than simply exhibiting reactionary anti-Americanism, as too many assume. Moscow has stood in the way of United Nations sanctions that aim to punish Tehran for its nuclear endeavors and has said that there should be no military action in Iran under any circumstances. Most recently, he has pressed for U.S. withdrawal date from Iraq, which would also strengthen Iran’s position in the region. Foremost in Putin’s mind in all of this is his hope of acquiring more energy resources – and by extension power. The Russian president is making a strategic decision that, by protecting Iran against the international community, he will receive quid pro quo support from Tehran, thereby strengthening his own country’s energy position in the region. If this situation precipitated, Russia would be able consolidate its monopoly power in the European energy market as the E.U. would be unable to diversify its energy suppliers.

The question thus stands: For Russia, is this strategy worth the risk of emboldening Iran, in a region that has been a serious problem for the Kremlin in the past? No doubt, Putin feels that it is given how little he believes is on offer from the West, which criticizes him as authoritarian, deplores his human rights record, fears Russia’s energy power and is threatening his country’s traditional sphere of influence with a missile defense system, as well as NATO and E.U. expansions.

When addressing this situation, the U.S. and the E.U. should recognize that Mr. Putin is support is largely for sale. While the price would be very high, they must decide if it is better to pay in order to address the nuclear situation in Iran or confront the Kremlin? By the look of developments in Washington, London and Paris, the conclusion is clear: Russian assistance is too expensive.

NOTE: It looks like the time for buying Russian support is quickly ebbing away with Putin’s decision to strengthen his military, and with nukes too!